An Inconvenient Talk

Dave Hughes’s guide to the end of the fossil fuel age

Two weeks after you ride along with Dave Hughes for Talk No. 155, though, the IEA releases the latest edition of its annual World Energy Outlook, which predicts a global oil production peak or plateau by 2030. In a video that appears online soon after, the Guardian’s George Monbiot requests a more precise figure from the IEA’s chief economist, Fatih Birol. The official estimate, he confesses, is 2020. Monbiot also inquires as to the motivation for the IEA’s sudden about-face, and Birol explains dryly that previous studies were “mainly an assumption.” That is, the 2008 version was the first in which the IEA actually examined hard data, wellhead by wellhead, from the world’s 800 largest oil fields. Monbiot asks, with understandable incredulity, how it was that such a survey hadn’t been conducted previously. Birol’s response: “In fact, nobody has done that research. And the research we have done this year is the first in the world, and this is the first publicly available data in that respect.”

This will come back to you again and again as you follow Dave farther down the road he’s travelled. Like the first oil executive’s public confirmation of the scientific reality of climate change (Lord Browne, BP, 1997), it is a pivotal declaration, an irreversible shift of the centre of balance from one side of the fulcrum to the other.

Dave’s been over on that reality-based side, publicly at least, since 2002, when the University of Calgary’s business school invited him to present his research on the growing scarcity of fossil fuels to its regular luncheon speakers series. This was Talk No. 1. Word spread, each Talk spawning another, and Dave was soon criss-crossing the continent.

And now he is behind the wheel of his new Toyota Tacoma four-by-four (you can tell he’s pretty pleased with it — it’s a backwoods Cortes Island kind of vehicle, rugged but reasonably efficient), and he’s turning off Highway 2 under a blinding prairie sun. He drives down a couple of those arrow-straight central Alberta secondary highways, and you come eventually to a low-slung office park on the outskirts of a town called Devon. This is NRCan’s National Centre for Upgrading Technology, a place where lab rats in long coats and hard hats work in vaulted warehouse spaces crammed with piles of pipe-and-valve apparatus straight out of a Dr. Seuss illustration, all of it intended to make it easier to turn unconventional fossil fuels into conventional ones. After Dave arrives, a swath of the centre’s staff gathers in a cramped, airless meeting space the size of a high school classroom, and Talk No. 155 begins.

What strikes you right away, this second time around, is how the data seems even more flooring. Ninety percent of all the oil humanity has ever burned has turned to ash and greenhouse gases since 1959 — half since 1986. Ninety percent of all the natural gas ever burned set aflame since 1964. Half of humanity’s cumulative coal tally up in smoke since 1972. “When I was born, back in 1950” — this is Dave, summarizing in his flat, slightly clipped deadpan — “the world had 95 percent of ultimate recoverable hydrocarbons remaining. Today we’ve consumed about 40 percent of ultimate recoverable hydrocarbons. If we keep consuming them as fast as we can produce them, 80 percent will be gone by 2050. And that’s a huge concern for future generations.” This presumes, of course, that what remains after we reach 50 percent — the global hydrocarbon peak — can even continue to be extracted at speeds and volumes that make any kind of economic sense.

The huge concern, in other words, isn’t the total but the difficulty of recovering those remaining hydrocarbons beyond the halfway mark. You notice, too, the way the keywords on that subject start to stick. Energy return on energy invested, which geologists refer to interchangeably as EROEI or EROI. Canada’s exploration treadmill. Reserves-to-production ratios.

You pick one at random, fixate on it. The historical EROEI for conventional oil is 100:1. This refers to the kind of crude that gushes up in the opening credits of The Beverly Hillbillies, the kind that first flowed out of the Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia when it was tapped in 1948. Invest a barrel’s worth of energy drilling and refining in a spot like Ghawar, then and forever the largest single crude oil deposit on the planet, and you used to get 100 barrels of energy-dense, easily transported fuel in return. These days, conventional EROEI for such places is closer to 25:1.

The EROEI on more recent “new conventional” deposits, which Dave cites mostly by their discovery and extraction methods (“deepwater oil, horizontal wells, 3-D seismic”) is also around 25:1. In Alberta’s tar sands, the surface-mined bitumen comes to market at an EROEI of 6:1. “In situ” bitumen — sludge buried too far under the boreal forest floor to excavate, which comprises the lion’s share of the most breathless estimates of Canada’s energy superpower–scale oil production — rings in at 3:1. Corn ethanol, that darling of America’s farm states, is somewhere between 1.3:1 and 0.75:1. Shale oil, another unconventional source held by its boosters to be capable of indefinitely extending the age of oil, has never been converted into fuel at a net energy profit, at least as far as Dave has been able to ascertain.
“I like to say that it’s not a resource issue — it’s a deliverability issue,” Dave tells the crowd at NRCan. It’s true, you notice; he does like to say it. Twice in this presentation, a few more times by satellite phone from Cortes many weeks later. “Bottom line is we’ve gone through the easy stuff, and we’re getting into more and more difficult sources of these hydrocarbons.”

You sit in a stuffy classroom in this esoteric research facility on the windswept prairie, and you listen carefully over the nagging cough of the bureaucrat next to you, and you copy out the balance of Dave’s 155th recitation of his final summary verbatim. You want to make sure you get it right. He delivers it in truncated bullet points, as if trying to compress the messy, multiply claused extravagances of language into tight packets of data:

The realities of the finite nature of non-renewable energy resources are now becoming evident. Peak oil in many producing countries. Peak North American natural gas. A tenfold increase in uranium prices since 2000. Imports of coal into the US after centuries of self-sufficiency. Despite the hype, renewable energy technologies are extremely unlikely to be able to fill the supply gap from hydrocarbons and non-renewable energy. A sustainable future lies in radically reducing and rethinking energy consumption. A paradigm shift in the way we look at energy. Forecasts of future energy consumption based on extrapolations of growth from the past — which ignore the physical limits of non-renewable resources, and the technological and physical constraints on their rate of conversion to supply — mask the crucial issues facing us and lead to complacency. Which will make the final transition much worse. Climate change is in the minds of the public and the rhetoric of the politicians. The energy sustainability dilemma is much less understood, although it’s highly likely to have more immediate and severe impacts on our current lifestyle than climate change. Which we will likely have to live with for centuries, because of the feedback loops that are already activated. Fortunately, many but not all solutions proposed for climate change also address energy sustainability. The number one priority is energy conservation and much greater efficiency. And there are many opportunities for doing this. Followed by technologies and lifestyle changes to reduce the dependence on non-renewable fuel sources. A sustainable energy future is not out of reach but will be hugely challenging. We have to be thinking on a ten- to twenty-year or longer time frame. To develop the infrastructure for alternatives as well as technologies and incentives to reduce consumption.

You know The Talk is true the way you know a weather report is true — reliable sources, clearly labelled charts, mathematics — but at the same time it can’t be true, can’t be, because if it’s accurate how can the mood in the room remain so workaday? How can you just rise and pour another cup of coffee and listen to someone say, Thanks, Dave, you’ve really given us a lot to think about, for the hundred and fifty-fifth time?

If you want to find evidence to the contrary, the soothing hum of business as usual, it is, of course, everywhere. A study by Daniel Yergin’s highly regarded Cambridge Energy Research Associates, for example, published in November 2006. Not only will there be no oil production peak before 2030, CERA asserts, but the global oil supply after that will map an “undulating plateau,” and the very idea of a peak is merely “a dramatic but highly questionable image.” Or here’s John McCarthy of Canada’s own National Energy Board, on the occasion of the publication of Canada’s Energy Future in late 2007. “Canadians will have ample energy supplies,” he states baldly, “until 2030.”
So much of this, though, hinges on a lack of context. The information is fragmented, the conclusions striking at odd angles. It begs you not to consider it for too long. Much of it relies on the basic economist’s assumption that rising prices will inevitably inspire the discovery of more supplies or the substitution of another fuel source, which is infallible truth only within the cozy confines of a self-contained economic model that assumes the earth can provide limitless bounty. So much remains unsaid, so few implications fully examined.

You find a couple of news stories from 2006, both reporting on an announcement by the Canadian Gas Potential Committee that Canada has “at least another quarter century” of natural gas reserves. “It means we have a future,” a spokesperson explains. “The downside is that it’s going to be expensive to get at.” The Calgary Herald — Dave’s erstwhile hometown paper, in a city heated almost exclusively by natural gas — notes this with a kind of glib reassurance. (It’s your hometown paper, too; you know glib reassurance is the Herald’s stock-in-trade.) The National Post, a division of the same corporation, begins its story like this: “It’s going to get about 100 times harder to find and develop conventional sources of natural gas in Canada’s most fruitful basin.” If, within the lifespan of the next furnace you buy, it’s going to be 100 times harder to obtain natural gas, what might that mean for the price you’ll have to pay? Even correcting for the hyperbole that news of fossil fuel scarcity so often inspires, this suggests a vast chasm of unexplored problems.

You read up on coal. You’ve got a vague notion the planet’s overflowing with the stuff, thousands of years’ worth. After all, the underlying assumption of “clean coal” technology research, which your provincial and federal governments are backing with ten-digit sums, is that coal supplies are essentially limitless, that only the greenhouse gas emissions they produce cloud our path to a bright, coal-powered future. Then you find a 2008 story in New Scientist called “The Great Coal Hole.” Officially reported reserves, it notes, are down more than 170 billion tonnes worldwide in the past two decades, and the global reserves-to-production ratio — the number of years the world could consume proven coal reserves at current rates of production — has declined from 277 in 2000 to 144 in 2006. This is not because the world burned up a 133-year supply in six years, but because, as Germany’s Energy Watch Group puts it, “so-called proven reserves were anything but proven.” A Caltech engineer named David Rutledge, meanwhile, applied the same methods used in peak oil prediction to the coal question, and he discovered a paucity of supply so great that he now argues it will be impossible to create the worst-case scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s reports, because there are simply not enough economically viable coal reserves left on earth to cloud the atmosphere with more than 460 parts per million of carbon dioxide.
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76 comment(s)

Stephen WeissMay 22, 2009 11:05 EST

I read this article the other night and I can't stop talking about. Thank you for sharing this important story.

Eric BrittonMay 25, 2009 05:21 EST

If I can get the necessary permission from you and Dave, I would like to reproduce this fine piece, with of course the usual credits, in World Streets at www.worldstreets.org. As you can imagine, Dave is helping us to understand yet one more reason why we need a massive overhaul of our transportation policies, and it ain’t for sure going to be waiting for the wonders of technology to kick in in time to save us (from ourselves).

You may want to have a quick look at streets to see how all this works in.

Thanks if this works out for you.

With all good wishes,

Eric Britton
Skype ericbritton Tel +331 43265 1323

JeremyMay 26, 2009 14:45 EST

Peak Oil theory fails in the most fundamental way in that it is not possible to predict future discoveries. Peak oil is the point in time beyond which, every year, we consume more oil than we discover, thus tapping into our reserves until they are gone. Even if we disregard the fact that estimating reserves is more of an art than a science, we can forecast how much oil will be discovered in 2013. Perhaps we will discover little oil in 2011 but much more in 2013. Therefore the smooth downward slope of the peak oil graph is an absurdity.

The important question is not when will peak oil be reached, but when will the price be high enough for hydrocarbons to stop being a viable energy source. I suspect the price threshold will eb reached far earlier than the peak oil threshold.

SkipperMay 26, 2009 15:25 EST

Excellent and thoughtfull article, thanks!

Jeremy,

You can't use wishes for liquid fuel. If you don't believe Dave Hughes I suggest you take a look at the Oil Megaprojects data at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_megaprojects. If you have information that would be helpful regarding future discoveries, I am certain they would be interested.

TristanMay 27, 2009 02:32 EST

Jeremy - two points

1. Oil discovery peaked at the end of the 60s, since then we have found less and less oil every year. The oil discovery and oil production graphs are of course mirrors of each other, since you can only produce what you find.

2. To gain funding from for oil exploration, you must have a very very good geological case for the chance of finding oil. The vast majority of the earth is understood by geologists and there are few spots left where oil may exist.

Good luck convincing a bank to give you tens of millions of dollars to drill a hole where geologists say there is no oil.

AnonymousMay 27, 2009 11:06 EST

Nice article, but I found the use of second person a little odd (or should I say "you" find it odd) for this type of article.

Philip MachanickMay 28, 2009 20:27 EST

We have a pair of exponential functions, population growth and energy consumption per capita. Most projections of lifetime of fuels whether fossil or nuclear are based on current rates of consumption. Compound for the annual increase of 2% + and we only have a few decades left rather than centuries even of the bigger ones like coal.

As for the validity of peak oil specifically, it has been validated in the US. The difference, going worldwide, is that in the US, once cheaper sources were exhausted, you went offshore. Worldwide, the next step is to tap expensive sources. So I am not so confident that we will run out of exploitable hydrocarbons soon enough to avoid dangerous CO2 levels.

Whichever way we argue it though, rather than rushing full tilt into a massive decline in supply and escalation in cost, we ought to be working hard now on alternatives. What better time to do this than in a worldwide recession, where governments are trying to spend their economies back to health?

AnonymousMay 29, 2009 12:28 EST

Great article and very scary. Bit of a cliche but the current calm of business as usual reminds me of the old story about frog in the slowly heating pot of water. It doesn't do anything until it's too late. That's our society right now. Our children and grandchildren will curse us for this.

The other cliche deals with making the public policy changes necessary to prepare for the collapse in oil - those who can, will not and those who will, cannot. Is anybody listening?

skh.pcolaMay 29, 2009 18:33 EST

Until the ecofascists cease and desist with their Luddite-like screeching and allow exploration and drilling, the "science is settled" crowd is being intentionally obtuse about the existing supply of oil. If companies aren't allowed to find and extract the oil, "PEAK OIL!1!" is nothing short of an anti-human mantra from ego-stroking faux elites who feel that they're smarter than everybody else.

ergMay 30, 2009 16:05 EST

skh.pcola did you actually read the article?

I don't think the "science is settled" crowd are being obtuse, but I can guarantee that you are. The geologists interviewed may be a tad abstruse, but at least they know what they're talking about.

PS.(They are smarter than you.)

runawaymunkeyJune 04, 2009 01:05 EST

Thank you for the article.... I have been researching peak oil off and on for the past couple of years, and the latest opinion of the IEA was new to me. What I can't understand is why no one seems to be upset by this. An immediate shift of priority is needed worldwide. Just think off all the wasted energy and money being spent on projects that assume everything will remain status quo! I had hoped the recession would shake things up a bit....

AnonymousJune 08, 2009 12:06 EST

Is there a list of upcoming presentations by Dave Huges on this topic,I'm in the Edmonton Area and would be very interested in attending.

William WanklynJune 10, 2009 15:47 EST

The notions of peak oil and runaway climate change are very interesting and I have been reading as much as I can find on both subjects over the past few months. This article helps to bring the peak oil dilemma into focus for the rest of us who seem to carry on as though the status quo can be sustained indefinitely. Apparently, it cannot. I find myself marveling at how surreal the situation has become.

What I have not yet come across is intelligent discussion on how our urban societies might adapt to using far less energy. In Canada, will we freeze in the dark in winter, eating turnips and potatoes? What are the likely scenarios for our population in a radically poorer environment? What are the implications for government revenues and expenditures? Should we continue to encourage people to immigrate to Canada where our per capita energy use is the highest in the world?

Is anyone in politics addressing these issues in more than a "change your light bulb" sort of way?

Enough of the reasons why we have to change our ways, lets have more realism on what we have to do to adapt.

Dave HughesJune 11, 2009 19:47 EST

I saw the print edition of this article detailing me yesterday for the first time. There was a notation on the cover of "Alberta's Prophet of Doom". My reaction was what a cheap sensationalist version of what Chris Turner had to say of my analysis of the energy situation - maybe hoping to sell more magazines, but what a disservice to my message. I am not a prophet of doom, rather, I am an objective analyst and observer with more scientific background than any number of pundits out there. I am stating the facts and what must be considered to manage the energy issue going forward. Your sensationalist take is an insult to my message and to my integrity. I understand that you have to sell magazines but please do not do it at the expense of my credibility. I AM NOT A PROPHET OF DOOM!!!!!

Steve McGibbonJune 12, 2009 19:18 EST

Don't worry Dave, your personal integrity came shining through in the article itself. Would love a .pdf of the presentation.

WalkerJune 14, 2009 19:22 EST

Dave: I join Steve McGibbon in saying that you need not worry about having been called a doomsayer. Most people who will read the story will never see the printed cover with that absurd headline, and the few that do will take it for just another editor's breathless attempt to hype a story — a story that needs no hyping really. Thanks to you for all you are doing to alert people, and thanks to the writer for doing a solid job — much better than the peak oil pieces that have appeared down here in the states, typically making Peak Aware people look like UFO enthusiasts and Cold Fusion believers.

Nick OutramJune 15, 2009 13:34 EST

Nice style of article -"one mans discovery"- or should I say "one prophets discovery"? :o)

For those interested to get another take on this I published a -now slightly older piece- in late 2007 just after the 'Credit Crunch' went mainstream in which I attempted to 'Join the dots':

Do a Google on "Peak Oil joining the dots" or copy/paste:
http://www.megatrends2020.com/Peak_Oil__Joining_The_Dots.doc

-I also hint at the likely outcomes including Commodity prices going 'through the roof' (non-discretional ones anyway) and runaway Inflation / Dollar collapse... Are we there yet?


Nick.

DianeJune 17, 2009 09:20 EST

Dave and Chris, thank you so much for getting this information out there. I've been switched on to peak oil for quite a few years now. This article only confirmed for me, yet again, that we're in deep trouble. In particular, the description of the two charts that Dave wants people to remember most of all, is jaw-dropping in the message it delivers.

Presently I am putting together notes for teaching a Permaculture Design Certificate course and would like to include your stats to show people why we need to make these "power-down" changes to our way of living. I would also like to include your references along with the stats.

Thanks
Diane Hall
living.permaculture (at) gmail.com

CherenkovJune 17, 2009 14:29 EST

Say goodbye to the forests.

Once the peak hits with a vengeance, more and more people will turn to burning wood to avoid the high cost of oil and natural gas.

What most people do not see is that this unwinding of an incredibly destructive paradigm (the cheap energy/industrial complex) will cause a spiral of worsening effects as everyone demands that current paradigms remain in some form. They will demand cars and electronic goods and cheap food and Internet and cheap clothing, tools, chemicals, etc. And in the mad scramble of a post cheap energy world, the ever amoral politicians will promise anything to keep that paradigm going: Hundreds of nuke plants? You bet! Burn food in the form of biofuels? Yes, sir! Pollute a vast swatch of Canada for tar sands? Are you kidding? Pollute away! Blow the tops off mountains? Drain the seas of fish? Yes and YES!!!!

As the politicians promise to keep the magical consumer dream going, the sheep will increasingly fall for brutal men and women like the BNP and the NeoCons who will find scapegoats who are keeping those consumers from their rightful place in line at WallyWorld. And soon camps will spring up to contain those who dare to challenge the paradigm, its beneficiaries (the corporations), the politicos in the emply of those interests, and the dreaded consumer.

So, by the time all is said and done, I would expect, by the end of the century, a human population of maybe 500 million huddled around the far north, a planet that will be largely destroyed for tens of thousands of years, perhaps millions, and only a few chagrined techno-monkeys among the remainder who might be able to pass on the message, the brutal truth, that technology without integration into the natural cycle of birth and death will lead to some future devastation.

JoanJune 17, 2009 21:44 EST

Dave, it's true — most of us reading the story are finding it online and never saw the dumb "prophet of doom" headline. But I don't blame you for being angry about it.

A lot of online forums have been discussing peak oil and what life might be like afterwards. But it's always good to read another expert's insights on what is going on and why it's something to take seriously. Thank you so much for your work and spreading The Talk.

JMJune 22, 2009 01:29 EST

I have been following the peek oil debate for over ten years. For financial security I assumed that it would happen sooner rather than later and thus have not lost a cent in the recent financial crash. I will shortly sell my suburban home and try to strategically buy land for much greater self sufficiency. Close family contracts are farmers so new skills can be learned.
The most encouraging immediate community planning suggestions I found on the internet is a movement in England called transitiontowns.org. A how to manual and examples of initial successes by local communities to agree to address the topic and then decide what they can and must do prepare themselves for the 30 year transition that can not be avoided. As always great challenges can and ultimately must be addressed at the local level.

ehswanJune 22, 2009 14:06 EST

One of the many things I liked about the film "Road Warrior", was that everyone seemed a bit insane; no one was left unscathed. Road warrior world, here we come!

James A. HellamsJune 22, 2009 16:28 EST

Dear Sirs:

With respect to the peak oil crisis that is ahead of us, the biggest mistake we made was the destruction of much of our rail infrastructure.

When it comes to energy efficiency and alternative energy use, the railroads are the best means of transportation we will ever have.

A modern railway can achieve 750 (seven hundred fifty) gross ton miles per gallon. This is weight in tons times miles per gallon. Try multiplying the weight in tons, times the miles per gallon, of your vehicles; and you will see how inadequately energy efficient they are, compared to rail transportation.

Railways are totally energy alternative. From the days of steam locomotives to present day, railroads have a proven record of being able to use every form of energy known to mankind, for propulsion.

With respect to the electric economy, the gentleman is not accurate. Railroads can totally electrify themselves. The technology exists to electrify every mile of track (even the track used by the diesel railroads); so the trains can use every source of energy known to mankind. Every source of energy known to mankind can be directly or indirectly converted to electric power to power a train. Thus trains can run totally free of any dependency on oil for energy!

Additionally, because a train can stay in constant contact with its electric power source; it can run thousands of miles non-stop. With this, it is possible to run a train coast to coast (non-stop), WITHOUT burning one drop of oil for energy!

Gladstone GardenerJune 22, 2009 17:23 EST

And the fuel to power the generators producing the electricity for the railroads is—what, exactly? Pixie dust? Or, more practically, several hundred nukes? Please do not insult our intelligence by asserting that solar or wind power can do the trick, as neither is scalable to the necessary size to replace hydrocarbons in electricity generation on a continental scale. We are going to find ourselves, fairly soon, on an energy budget largely limited to what the sun gives us day-to-day, just as the human race has been living for all but the last couple centuries of our history. The immediate consequence will be a die-off of perhaps 80% of the human population, as our numbers decrease to what that energy budget can realistically support. Those who comprise the 80% are not likely to lay down quietly and expire. Cortes Island seems a wise choice to me.

James A. HellamsJune 22, 2009 18:10 EST

Gladstone Gardner

With respect to electric power, this can be generated by; but not limited to: gas, coal, geothermal, hydroelectric, nuclear, biomass, wind, solar, ocean wave motion, oil; and so on sources of energy!

ehswanJune 22, 2009 20:10 EST

In this comment stream I think "Gladestone Gardener" wins out over "James A. Hallams" (odd names)? You see children, our population has over run the Earth, our mother and caused a plague of suffering for the naturale life on this ever so fragile planet. We are experiencing the most rapid species die off, (our natural brothers and sisters, plants and animals) in geologic history. I hope we have several decades to resolve this overabundance of our selves, but I doubt it.

Mike BendzelaJune 22, 2009 20:38 EST

Mr. Hughes, your anger at the obtuse "prophet of doom" remark strikes home.

But there's a facet of this whole deal that is as fascinating as it is abyssmal: the mainstream human psyche will not "take" the peak oil argument.

The majority of humans will always view dire warnings as "prophesies of doom" instead of what they are, DIRE WARNINGS. A warning is not a prophesy, but try explaining that to lunk-heads. It has always been thus.

The majority of humans will always default toward the "reserves fallacy," continually and stubbornly confusing amount of oil underground with flow rates, and it will always be thus.

The majority of humans will continue to confuse "maxing out" with "running out" and it will always be thus.

The majority of humans, upon seeing a pile of one hundred million pennies, will continue to see One Million Dollars.

It has always been thus.

And "...like fish caught in a treacherous net and birds trapped in a snare, so the
sons of men are ensnared at an evil time when it suddenly falls on them." Ecclesiastes 9:12

signalfireJune 23, 2009 02:19 EST

Thank you for this quite amazing and well written article. As a student of the peak oil theory for several years now, I feel I've prepared as best I can, but I still know it's not ever going to be enough. It both terrifies and amazes me that almost everyone is expecting 'civilization' to continue on and that somehow, technology will solve our problems.

I read something back in the 70s that has stayed with me ever since: Ivan Ilich wrote a wonderful little tome called, "Energy and Equity"; in it, he states that we never really go faster than bicycle speed; all else is an illusion, the speed of the vehicle making us forget the time spent designing, producing, buying and maintaining the thing; whether it be car, jet plane or space shuttle...

Here's to a slower, more human paced planet. Too bad without oil, we won't be able to feed 80% of us... For more wonderful points of view on this, if a reader is new to the topic, see anything by Richard Heinberg (his wonderful "Power Down" and "The Party's Over" are great places to start, but his tour de force is his "Power Down Protocol" giving us ways to do what must be done. James Howard Kunstler's "The Long Emergency" is good for a curmudgeon's point of view on suburbia, etc; and his "Clusterfuck" blog is alternately hilarious and spot-on... for day by day updates, Life After The Oil Crash.com offers a wealth of information. And everyone should watch Albert Bartlett's lecture on population growth on youtube... I believe it holds the award of being the most watched lecture in history. Oh, and don't miss the now dated but still cogent video, "The End of Suburbia" also available on line.

Good luck everyone, we're going to need it.

AnonymousJune 23, 2009 10:27 EST

Thanks for an interesting article. There's a small error on the final page:

'Put your average healthy Albertan on a treadmill and wire it to a generator, and in an hour the guy could produce about 100 watts of energy. That’s 360,000 joules.'

You mean that if he worked at a power of 100 watts *for* an hour, he would produce 360,000 joules of energy: watts are a rate of energy transfer, 1 watt being 1 joule per second: you need to know how long you've been working and at what rate to know how much energy has been transferred. In an hour, the Albertan has produced 100 watt-hours, not 100 watts: you have confused a rate for an amount.

This is pedantic, but I think it partly evidences one of the difficulties surrounding energy debates: the panoply of units and orders of magnitude deployed. Whilst correct, people cannot relate to these, both through their magnitude, and simply never encountering them in real life. Having seemingly no consensus on how to present this information is at best obfuscatory, at worst baffling. All too often large numbers are used to be sensational (often while hiding their relative smallness), as is partly seen in the demonstration of the amount of energy in a barrel of oil: arresting indeed, providing a gasp for the reader towards the end of the article, but we all know that oil contains a lot of energy and that it's used to power our lifestyles at a rate that we alone could not manage: it's why we don't move our cars with our feet, Flintstones style. Noting the energy density of oil is really of little use without knowing how much energy our lifestyles use, and how much alternative sources (renewables, nuclear...) could economically feasibly provide.

AnonymousJune 24, 2009 11:26 EST

Peak oil and peak gas obviously have to come at some point; no matter what remains to be discovered, the pools aren't infinite. Whether the peaks have happened already or are a few decades off isn't very important. The questions are how we adapt to them and how well we adapt to them.

There will be no single solution. Obviously renewables (wind, photovoltaic solar and solar-powered heat engines) will play a large part. The biggest gains come from using less energy. Unfortunately, there are nastier coping mechanisms.

The real threat is that coal reserves will be brought in as a stopgap and then a long-term crutch. Coal reserves are much larger than hydrocarbon (oil and gas) reserves and there are proven ways to synthesize liquid and gaseous fuels from coal. (Natural gas is "natural" because it isn't carbon monoxide generated from coal as burned by Victorians.) We can delay inevitable changes for many years.

Meanwhile, global warming continues. That's the danger that swamps all others.

GnomaedhJune 29, 2009 02:14 EST

Of possible interest to anyone that follows EROI theory/data:

1 - A Peak Oil discussion on Financial Sense website with Matt Simmons and Dr. Robert Hirsch, Dec 2008, audio format:
http://snipurl.com/l33kj [www_financialsense_com]
Financial Sense - Simmons/Hirsch discussion

2 - Dr. Louis Arnoux's pdf book: "Peak Oil, Climate Change and All that Jazz" http://snipurl.com/l34j4 [www_itmdi-energy_com]

You will find both of these information sources quite interesting and informative. The audio discussion is over an hour long, and the pdf book is 3.7M in size.

Dave Hughes is not alone in his conclusions... we should be very concerned by looking at this data.

Steve McGibbonJune 29, 2009 18:45 EST

With respect to the destruction of our rail system,as commented on by Mr. Hellams, we can thank, in part anyway, GM+Firestone+Standard Oil for collaborating to buy up and rip up railways throughout the US in the 1930's. Kind of forced us to buy cars....

Franklin D. LomaxJuly 06, 2009 17:15 EST

WastingtonDC: Hino has sold 500 hybrid 7.5 ton trucks. Volvo is building Class 8 Hybrids, with 25% and higher improvements in the miles per gallon used by these million mile vehicles that can range from 3.5mpg like my 1985 International 9370, 475HP Detroit 8v92, still on the road, last time I talked to the new owner, to 5 or 6 mpg for the best of them, today. Eaton with a consortium have built a fully diesel electric, not hybrid, just straight diesel electric drive heavy lift military, that is also a Plug Out, 200KW generator, to eliminate our immense generator carbon footprint, and the clutter of additional engines, trailers tires, etc. One US company, and several foreign firms with living design departments get it, and are designing working trucks, for working people. Light medium and heavy truck Plug In and Out hybrids will bring US energy independence within a generation, while the flyweight plug in vehicles GM is forced to build, will sell a few millions, with unlimited taxpayer subsidies, but will make a small dent in OPEC terror financier's energy blackmail alliance with the SinoRussian energy blackmailers. A simple NAFTA wide subsidy, with no felt pain to the taxpayers, and decisive incentives to light medium and heavy truck hybrid owners is easy to do, and will end production of fuel only light medium and heavy vehicles, within a generation. Issue a permanent, NAFTA wide, free trade Title, Registration, and License Plate, for $50.00 for any hybrid, new, used, or converted, that increases the vehicles non imported fuel use by 50%, or mileage per gallon, by 20% for heavier vehicles. Exempt all hybrids from entering the hundreds of weight and inspection extortion palaces, at every state's many border crossings. This is an instant $5K to $15K tax, fine, and fee extortion exemption, and will end fuel only vehicle production within a generation. It will pay for conversion of most of the trucks now on the roads, due to simple economics. Having lived over 300 days per year in that 9370 International, 475 Detroit, after my retirements from government and military service, and after retiring from the road, long days and nights in my 2000 Ford Excursion used as a field office and observation post, as a quality manager at high traffic national venues, I can vouch for the necessity of designing working trucks, for 80 million working Americans, who cannot work without them. Not tool boxes, laptops, and cup holders, working hybrid trucks. With, now, 245,000 miles on that diesel Excursion, burning over 14,000 gallons of diesel, I can assure you that the young people who took over after my retirement need light medium and heavy hybrids, to save 25% up to 100% of the imported fuel that destroys their ability to make a living, when gasoline goes above $3.00, and harms them greatly, at lower costs. That's why truck dealer lots are full of repo'ed and abandoned new trucks that get 12 mpg empty, when my Excursion, with the larger 7.3L diesel still gets over 17 mpg, with two tons of tools, chains, and winches in the rear compartment. Nobody builds million mile diesel vehicles better than Detroit, UAW/CAW get the governments off their backs, and 80,000,000 North Americans who must work with a truck will buy a new or converted diesel hybrid, right now.

Gary B.July 14, 2009 05:26 EST

There are already several excellent documentaries on this subject available on DVD which everyone should watch:

(1) The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the End of the American Dream
(2) A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash

These can both be purchased from Amazon. Excerpts have been posted on YouTube.

(3) Crude: The Incredible Journey of Oil

This is only sold in Australia but can be viewed on Guba:

http://www.guba.com/general/search?query=crude&set=5&x=18&y=4

===

Gary B. (Nova Scotia)July 14, 2009 08:01 EST

The peak oil documentary "A Crude Awakening" can be viewed (at reduced resolution) on Goggle videos:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-665674869982904386

It is also available at some video rental shops.

Seibu G (Calgary)July 24, 2009 19:04 EST

Dave Hughes tells a story of massive impending global constraints in oil, gas and coal. Clearly there are some deep-seated psychological mechanisms in us that prevents frightening news of this sort from sinking in. (Climate change denial is another obvious example of a bugaboo that triggers this illogical reaction.) Still, there are enough people who realize that humans also have the capacity to rise to the challenge of preserving its security in the face of such major threats. Most of us don't accept these problems — let alone act on them — until the writing is writ large on the wall. But others are acting already. Despite the apparent gloominess of Dave Hughes' message, he still remains an optimist. This is an extremely important point that I don't think Chris Turner fully appreciates. Now is the time to start taking action to re-engineer modern society's economic template so that living standards can continue to grow while energy consumption drops. "Calgary's own" energy economist Peter Tertzakian, in his new book "The End of Energy Obesity", does just that. The future's promise lies not in finding more supplies of energy, but in altering "demand-side behaviour". We need to be realists to hear Dave Hughes, but we need to be hard-workers if we're going to listen to Tertzakian and pursue his sensible solutions to this energy crisis.

Tertzakian's YouTube video can be seen at:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYhZ4r6Sw8U

JoshSeptember 10, 2009 10:52 EST

An interesting and intimidating article, thanks for the insight. Is video of 'the talk' available anywhere? If not Dave should consider filming and posting this presentation. The graphs aren't as effective in paragraph form...

DarklampOctober 07, 2009 16:48 EST

One thing that is important is to relate energy consumption with every day actions. One poster above mentioned how difficult it is to get the units of energy right for people. Big numbers or small numbers attached to mixed up units always make it difficult to understand. It is for this reason that I feel the peak oil message is lost and still very academic, left only to those that attune to the subject.

Perhaps what it takes is drastic rationing of gasoline. If gasoline stations were required to shut down for several weeks of the year, the public might have an idea what peak oil really means.

Jason MainOctober 18, 2009 21:24 EST

He is facing the other way and will miss the train :)

Cewek CantikNovember 06, 2009 01:46 EST

Wha, it's really a great story. Surely make me can't sleep to think about this article. Thank very much for sharing.

lig tv izleNovember 14, 2009 01:40 EST

Hi thanks for article..Because nice article..

peterdodgeNovember 14, 2009 11:12 EST

Nowhere in the comments on this article did I see even a mention of fusion (excepting COLD fusion which is outside the laws of science so far). We live in a universe that does not have an energy problem because of the relationship of matter to energy. (they are one and the same). We simply MUST develop fusion as the only method of fueling our energy needs that meets our current scale. Old man Bush started down this road, beginning work on a collider with sufficient power to resolve some of the technical problems and a magnetic containment vehicle. Both projects were ended by Clinton with blind foresight. The current regime has said and done nothing I have heard. How ironic it would be that we miss our chance and fall into the scenario that has been discussed here!(CERN is a start but it is too small and a political hydra)

mmorpgNovember 17, 2009 00:38 EST

Peak oil and peak gas obviously have to come at some point; no matter what remains to be discovered, the pools aren't infinite. Whether the peaks have happened already or are a few decades off isn't very important. The questions are how we adapt to them and how well we adapt to them.

Game MusicNovember 17, 2009 00:38 EST

I have been following the peek oil debate for over ten years. For financial security I assumed that it would happen sooner rather than later and thus have not lost a cent in the recent financial crash. I will shortly sell my suburban home and try to strategically buy land for much greater self sufficiency. Close family contracts are farmers so new skills can be learned.
The most encouraging immediate community planning suggestions I found on the internet is a movement in England called transitiontowns.org. A how to manual and examples of initial successes by local communities to agree to address the topic and then decide what they can and must do prepare themselves for the 30 year transition that can not be avoided. As always great challenges can and ultimately must be addressed at the local level.

Wool area rugsNovember 20, 2009 23:58 EST

This is one of the best article I have seen on this topic. Great work.

hiaxysheytanNovember 26, 2009 12:44 EST

Thanks for sharing.

barakDecember 05, 2009 09:38 EST

Your writing style is marvellous and you have given a good article. I found this article to be very informative

BillDecember 06, 2009 01:26 EST

While I like the idea of lessening our oil usage, I also feel like the little changes our North American society will make over the next few decades will unfortunately not offset the massive increases countries like China and other developing countries will use. Just my opinion, the truth will be seen when the time comes.

WilbertDecember 09, 2009 17:23 EST

I am not sure this is the end of the fossil fuel age. It is the cheapest form of energy. An after the whole climate gate i think that people would continue to burn a lot of fossil fuel.

mcdonalds jobsDecember 09, 2009 21:17 EST

There's new technology being developed to convert shale oil efficiently and cost effectively. That's good news since there seems to be an endless supply of shale oil in North America. Either way, renewable energy is the right answer and it is the future.

doctorDecember 11, 2009 16:14 EST

thanks for this nice article

SEO TipsDecember 13, 2009 22:19 EST

Thanks for great information.

kid loverDecember 14, 2009 15:17 EST

yes absolutely right. energy crisis.
for temporary in my country (developing country), everyday we will not have electricity for few hours, due to old systems generator, and no money yet to change with the new one

National FlowersDecember 16, 2009 15:18 EST

Good information, thank you for sharing.

Game of ThronesDecember 17, 2009 12:25 EST

As well as ecologicla damage we are just going to tun out

globaltorDecember 19, 2009 07:49 EST

energy... why always energy.... energy create several wars, energy create several .......
yes.... energy is important but human life more important

kurumsalseo.com R10 lida fx15 pohudey zay?flamaDecember 21, 2009 15:12 EST

This is a great article.Thanks

Tukang MasakDecember 25, 2009 05:06 EST

great thanks for this informastion

showlandsDecember 28, 2009 09:32 EST

Hello,
When we at nice artikel, would be nice if we share good comment :D

gamingDecember 29, 2009 18:52 EST

Although everyone is crying for greener ways, I hear many well-educated people on both sides say we simply don't know if we are causing global warming, and in fact the planet goes through cycles of cold/hot periods...we didn't cause the Ice Age.

Healthy recipesDecember 31, 2009 03:10 EST

Well i think that the provincial sustainable resources minister came up to congratulate himself for setting aside some new provincial parkland on the edge of the city

Proxy DirectoryJanuary 01, 2010 05:54 EST

I think i'm agree with the other comments. we should save material for future oil. because the material is oil resources that can be depleted or limited. how it would be if the Earth is running out of oil the Earth. therefore, we should conserve oil materials for children and our grandchildren

Gezonde VoedingJanuary 02, 2010 01:57 EST

This is great news, i appreciate it.

car gamesJanuary 02, 2010 14:12 EST

I hope this article and others like it help to end the ridiculous notion that "peak oil is a good thing because it will force us to emit less CO2"

work at home jobsJanuary 11, 2010 01:20 EST

Thank you for sharing such a nice information.

penny stocksJanuary 11, 2010 02:24 EST

Recent studies shows that you could miss how our current trajectory obliges us to rely on hydrocarbons for 86 percent of our projected primary energy needs in 2030, and how that fits with the strong case Hughes makes that the global hydrocarbon peak

Sikat Ang PinoyJanuary 11, 2010 02:57 EST

This is a much needed information. The energy crisis is still there so we must do whatever we can to at least, lessen its bad effect.

ONLINE BACHELOR DEGREEJanuary 14, 2010 15:51 EST

visited before..so nice to be here..

comprar camisetasJanuary 20, 2010 08:19 EST

Change the way we use energy but the same companies and countries will be those who do business.

moneyJanuary 21, 2010 05:37 EST

thank you, very good reasearch. I wonder how much oil do you think we can save every year?

peninggi badanJanuary 31, 2010 09:39 EST

very nice and an inconvenient talk.

Thanks for your article.

June 17, 2010 16:41 EST

ne of the many things I liked about the film \"Road Warrior\", was that everyone seemed a bit insane; no one was left unscathed. Road warrior world, here we come!

PhoriaropayJanuary 25, 2011 23:53 EST

Thanks for being such a patient subject when I'm testing out photo gear and, most of all, thanks for kicking my butt at Modern Warfare 2 on the Xbox 360.

ahmet mehmetJanuary 26, 2011 15:45 EST

Mr. Hughes, your anger at the obtuse "prophet of doom" remark strikes home.

RockFebruary 21, 2011 19:45 EST

Well, I hear many well-educated people on both sides say we simply don't know if we are causing global warming, thanx.

Gene BachelderApril 06, 2011 17:03 EST

I'm the Walrus gue-ca-ga-ca-chue Say,"O-blah-de-blah-da Protection against worst weather conditions, safeguarding us from most disasters as oil depletion day is near 2032yr. How is our fields to be plowed or freight to be moved, when all the oil is used up? Adding some electrical cars and changing a few light bulbs don’t cut the mustard people.
ANDREW GARAB, TIMOTHY O’ROURKE; NEW YORK TIMES,-“SOARING CAR CULTURE CLASH.” ENGINEERS; MR. CHAN ZHANG, WANG JANKA PLEASE SEARCH IT ON THE WEB! Guangzhua, China + 15 other cities has 60 gargantuan tunnel machines and China is investing $100 million per mile to restructure their failed transportation system as mass transit subways. Perhaps to replace the over congested vehicles, installate from extreme conditions, to prepare against oil depletion day near 2032yr. This city last year perfected 71 running miles of subway, projecting 83 miles this year, with 500 + more miles in the plans. This includes high speed and local tracks. Stoned walled since 1962:GWB, UNEMPLOYED, NEAR DEAD, IN AZ., Yes WE CAN ENGINEER OUT OF THE PROBLEM. Please send a response. I’ve always cared about everyone, Anyone that Sais, “different is a Liar!!!” Have more info. but need hard address to send it to.
Sincere listener: bggene1004@hotmail.com

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