Toronto–Two days till the Game of the Century — or, as anyone not from Boston or New York is calling it, Super Bowl 42. “What?! No Roman numerals?!â€? you say, somehow transcribing your words directly onto my screen. Look, I know the use of Roman numerals to mark Super Bowls is a cute tradition, but I’m a man of science. As such, I’m going with the numeral system that includes a rather important digit: zero. Let’s hear it for Hindu-Arabic numbers!

So, yeah, Super Bowl is in two days. And, as it’s done for as far back as I can remember, my favourite Las Vegas sports book has released a whopping list of proposition bets to mark the occasion.

Quickly: proposition bets concern a very specific outcome of a game, not just who wins or loses. So, you can bet on whether Randy Moss will score the last touchdown of the Super Bowl, at 6-to-1 odds. Bet one dollar, and if you’re correct, you win six and get your original dollar back.

This year, the Las Vegas Hilton’s collection of goofy bets runs a healthy fifty-four pages, long enough to induce a heart attack of joy in any four-hot-dogs-a-day compulsive gambler. The head honcho at the Hilton’s sports book has suggested–in an interview with my Bears-loving buddy Matty who works at the Chicago Tribune’s sports section–that legal wagers on this year’s Super Bowl could approach US$100 million. So, because gambling is illegal in most other places (and the Canadian provinces’ government-run sports betting systems, with their usurious house odds, are not even worthy of the term “gamblingâ€?), we can safely say that only $100 million dollars will be bet on the game!

“What about illegal bookies, offshore internet wagering and bets between friends? Those markets must be gigantic,� you say. To which I reply: quit talking onto my screen! This is my space!

Now, I generally have a rule that the more fun a bet is, the worse chance you have of winning it. So I would never bet my own money on any of these things, if gambling were legal in Ontario, which it isn’t (with the exception of the government-sanctioned theft mentioned above). But in the interest of science, I’ve scanned the list and built a portfolio of proposition bets that I believe could go my way. Below, you’ll see how I’ve wagered my 100 Trotterbucks (TB) — mostly stupidly.

Enjoy the game, and I’ll let you know what my final Trotterbuck tally in next Friday’s post, the last before my big move to Paris.

* * *

Bet 1: Jersey number of player to score first touchdown? Over/Under 43.5, –110 money line on both bets

Basically, what this bet is saying: do you think that a running back (traditionally, a low jersey number) or a wide receiver (traditionally, a high jersey number) will score the first touchdown? Ah, but not so fast: if you take the under, you’re also getting both quarterbacks (#10 Eli Manning, #12 Tom Brady) scoring on a QB sneak, two of the Giants’ three best receivers (#17 Plaxico Burress and #12 Steve Smith) and the third- and fourth-best Patriots receivers (#18 Donte’ Stallworth and #10 Jabar Gaffney). Throw in most of the cornerbacks and safeties returning an interception for a score, and the under’s looking pretty good. Of course, the #44s are New York’s second running back, Ahmad Bradshaw, and New England’s fullback, Heath Evans, both promising dark-horse candidates to punch in a score. Still, give me the under!

ST’s bet: Under 43.5, 11 Trotterbucks (-110 means that I’m betting 11 TB to win 10, for a total return of 21 TB. Don’t worry, this will make sense by the end…).

* * *

Bet 2: Longest made field goal of the game? O/U 43.5, -110 (if no FG made, all bets refunded)

Again, 43.5 is our over-under number. Look: a 44-yard field goal means the ball is snapped from the 26 yard line. If Pats coach Belichick gets this close, he’s probably going to go for it on fourth down because his offense is good enough to convert most of the time. And the Giants can’t settle for field goals if they’re going to win this game, so coach Coughlin should be playing for touchdowns instead of long field goals. Especially since his kicker shanked two shorter attempts in regulation in the NFC Championship game. Even though Larry Tynes made the game-winner from 47 yards, if you’re a Giants fan, I have to believe that you will want that man standing firmly on the sidelines from that distance. Give me the under.

ST’s bet: Under 43.5, 11 TB

* * *

Bet 3: Will Wes Welker (NE) score a touchdown? Yes +115, No –135

OK, now we’re getting a little more complicated. The plus sign associated with “yes� means that Vegas thinks this is less likely to happen. In other words, yes is the underdog, so if you bet 10 Trotterbucks and win, you get 11.50 TB plus your original bet back. And Wes Welker scores touchdowns like it’s his job. A job he’s been paid $550,000, plus $5,556,720 in bonuses, to perform this year. I’m guessing that means he’s pretty good at his job.

ST’s bet: Yes, 10 TB (multiplied by 115/100, to win 11.50 TB)

* * *

Bet 4: Will Tom Brady (NE) throw a touchdown pass in the 4th quarter? Yes –140, No +120

He’s so cute, that Tom Brady! And ever-so-clutch.

ST’s bet: Yes, 7 TB (as indicated by the “minus 140,” we’re picking the favourite here, so multiply by the inverse of 140/100 to get a win of 5 TB)

* * *

Bet 5: Most receiving yards? Plaxico Burress +21.5 over Randy Moss, -110

OK, this is the most complicated bet so far, so let me walk you through it. We’re looking for the receiver who will have the most total receiving yards at the end of the game, and +21.5 means that Plaxico gets a 21.5-yard head start, because Vegas thinks Randy Moss has a better chance of gaining more yards. So if Burress gains 88 yards, and Moss gains 97, the bettor who takes Burress wins that bet by adding the 21.5-yard cushion to his total. And that bettor would be me, because Burress is playing out of his mind right now, and I think the Giants will follow the game plan of the Pats’ last two opponents (victims?) by double- and triple-covering Moss, who only has two total catches in his past two games.

ST’s bet: Burress +21.5, 11 TB (to win 10)

* * *

OK, that’s 50 TB on fairly standard prop bets. Time to get silly with the other half of my bankroll.

Bet 5: What will there be more of: Randy Moss receptions, or Tiger Woods birdies in Sunday’s 4th round of the Dubai Desert Classic? Randy –110, Tiger +110

I hear this Tiger Woods guy is good at golf — so good, in fact, that his mere presence in a tournament field actually makes every other golfer play measurably worse (seriously, click the link, it’s a wicked cool study). And we’ve already hitched our wagons to the Randy-Moss-will-be-shut-down wagon, so let’s go all out. What, you want me to minimize my risk, hedge my bets and take Moss here? Sorry folks, Jérôme Kerviel is my co-pilot this week. And he says, “laissez-le ride! Nous serons riches!�

ST’s bet: Tiger, 20 TB (to win 22)

* * *

Bet 6: Who will have more, Ben Watson (NE) receptions or total goals in Sunday’s Fulham vs. Aston Villa English Premier League soccer match? Watson +110, Fulham/Villa –130

Tom Brady loves to throw to his tight end, Watson. And English soccer teams hate scoring goals. This one’s easy money.

ST’s bet: Watson, 10 TB (to win 11)

* * *

Bet 7: Who will have more, Patriots total points or Kobe Bryant total points in the L.A. Lakers’ Sunday NBA game vs. Washington? Both –110 with +0.5 point advantage for Kobe.

The half-point advantage for Kobe means that if these two scorers tie, Kobe wins the tie. Both the Patriots and Kobe love scoring. I’m pegging the Patriots at around 34 points for this game, and I know that the Wizards are currently without their top two players and aren’t a particularly good defensive team. Advantage: Black Mamba.
ST’s bet: Kobe +0.5 points, 5.5 TB (to win 5)

* * *

Bets 8-12: These bets come from the who-will-do-what category, where there are many possibilities and each individual event has its own odds. So, you can bet on who will score the first touchdown of the game — Randy Moss, a likely suspect, is a 9-to-2 favourite (bet 2 to win 9), while seldom-used Giants receiver David Tyree is a higher-return long shot at 40-to-1. Get it? Good, let’s go:

2 TB on Wes Welker (NE) to score the game’s first touchdown at 7/1 (total win: 14 TB)

2 TB on Giants to win game by final margin of 1-6 points at 7/1 (14 TB)

2 TB on Patriots to win by 1-6 points at 6/1 (12 TB)

2 TB on Tom Brady to complete exactly 20 passes in the game at 20/1 (40 TB)

2 TB on Tom Brady to complete exactly 30 passes in the game at 20/1 (40 TB)

* * *

ST’s Lucky Bet 13: The opening coin toss will be Heads or Tails? -101 for each

The mother of all Super Bowl prop bets is betting on the coin toss, which is weird because it’s really the only bet involved with the game that you could make with a friend in the comfort of your own home if the Super Bowl didn’t exist, and you wouldn’t have to pay the bookies a 1 percent commission for the privilege of laying money on what is an even-money wager. You and I could pick a date in March, for example, and flip a coin every year on that date, and if we lived forever eventually our wins and losses would even out, and we would be really old and no richer or poorer for our efforts and intuition. Sounds depressing, right? So let’s bet on the Super Bowl coin flip!

A couple notes to “help� you “pick� the “most likely result� of a fair coin flip: The Giants will call the toss this year; their conference, the NFC, has won the past 10 Super Bowl coins flips, and America traditionally bets more money on heads than it does on tails. And who’s more American than the captain of the New York Football Giants?

What I’m trying to say here is that I’m pretty sure the Giants will call heads, and I’m pretty sure Pats coach Bill Belichick will rig the coin toss for his own nefarious purposes (i.e. getting the ball first), because if there’s one thing we know about the Pats, it’s that they love to cheat.

ST’s bet: Tails, 4.50 TB (for a total win of 4.46)

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Posted on Friday, February 1st, 2008 at 2:45 pm. Follow comments through the RSS 2.0 feed. Comment or trackback.