NEW YORK—Hillary Clinton’s campaign is moving in the wrong direction on every count: money, momentum, and delegates. Tonight’s debate in Austin is one of her last chances to turn it around. Will she be able to?

8:06 — The only question that matters tonight is whether Hillary Clinton decides to take her chances by going on the offensive. Nothing in her opening statement suggests she’s willing to take that chance.

8:15 — The first question, on whether the candidates would meet with Fidel Castro’s successor, plays to one of Clinton’s few remaining strengths, which is the experience thing. She nails it.

8:18 — Obama gets big applause, the first of the night, with his old line about the importance of talking to enemies as well as friends. But he seems to be fudging by talking about preconditions, and the moderator calls him on it.

8:21 — Clinton turns the topic into foreign affairs, and again sounds like the one who’s better prepared. Something in her face says she knows it’s a good start to the debate.

8:23 — On to the economy. Clinton and Obama are asked how they differ on the economy. Obama first: some bland language about ending tax cuts for companies that send jobs overseas and reversing tax cuts for the wealthy. This stuff was old in 2004.

8:27 — Clinton now. This is her chance to drive home the “ready on day one” theme. She gets big applause by talking about being a president for the middle class. Talk of a moratorium on foreclosure for 90 days is more specific than Obama, and gets her another burst of applause.

8:39 — Finally, something interesting. Clinton is asked if she would finish building the border fence. Her answer revolves around the word “review.” Will Obama point out that this is the same Clinton who tried to have it both ways on drivers licences for illegal immigrants?

8:41 — No such luck. Obama knows he’s subject to the same conflicting pressures on illegal immigration as Clinton. It’s fun to ask how either would stand up to McCain on immigration reform.

8:53 — Clinton is practically invited by the moderator to say that Obama isn’t ready for the White House. She can’t quite bring herself to do it.

8:56 — That doesn’t stop Obama from acting as though she has. He uses the opportunity to talk about why his campaign is doing so well — the desire for change and hope. For the first time in nearly an hour of debate, he looks like he’s finding his stride.

9:00 — The moderators aren’t done looking for sparks. Obama is asked about Clinton’s accusations he plagiarized lines from a speech. He’s fielded this question enough times in the past few days that he’s more than comfortable seguing into his message. Clinton’s got that terrible faux-grin plastered on her face again. She may be tempted to go harder now.

9:02 — Finally, Clinton is addressing Obama in the second person. She’s dressing him down over health care, and it seems like a good change of tone for her.

9:08 — At the second commercial break, let’s indulge in some plainly subjective half-time commentary. Clinton started the night hesitant to take a negative tone, and after an hour, she realized her reluctance wasn’t helping her, and changed tack. If she continues, she can come out of this all right. Obama is not at his best when under attack.

9:12 — Back from commercial. Clinton leaps out of her corner, ignoring the moderator’s question to go back to health care, her strong point. This is the tenacity she needs to win the night.

9:17 — Another invitation from the moderator for Clinton to call Obama too green for the job. She’s still not there, trying instead to imply her own readiness by listing some current global challenges. But she needs more than that. Obama counters by talking about Iraq, and judgment. He’s playing his hand better than she played hers.

9:25 — A question now on the wisdom of the surge in Iraq. Clinton sounds wonky for a minute, then finally spits out that she would start pulling out troops in 60 days. “It is up to the Iraqis to decide the kind of future they will have.”

9:26 — Obama’s turn on Iraq. He takes it back to the judgment issue, stressing that he’ll be better able to face McCain over Iraq that Clinton, who voted for the war. It’s not clear that he’s right — somehow, Bush beat Kerry on military credibility. But Obama wins the round on Iraq tonight.

9:30 — Third commercial break, and time for more subjective analysis. Who’s winning so far? They’re split on points, but for Obama a draw means a win. Right now, somebody offstage is telling Clinton aggressively that she needs to push Obama harder or she’s not going to walk away happy.

9:34 — A question on earmarks creates an opening for Clinton to talk about the Bush deficit and cronyism. She does a good job of knocking the Republicans, forgetting that they’re not her target tonight.

9:38 –Next up, superdelegates. Clinton brushes the question aside, which is probably all she can do. (Nobody’s suggesting Obama will take the nomination on the strength of superdelegate support.) Obama uses the opportunity to talk about respecting voters’ desire for change. Another round for Obama.

9:42 — The final question is a softie on the moment each candidate was tested the most. Obama ignores the question. Clinton, interestingly, hints at her marriage troubles, to much cheering. Then she goes back to the theme that won her New Hampshire — a personal accounting of why the race matters to her, the challenges facing the country, and how it motivates her. This would sound hollow from anyone else, but she pulls it off.

9:45 — The debate’s over. Clinton closed well, but it’s hard to tell whether it was enough. No clear mistakes by either side, but no zingers either.

CNN’s political panel is about to unleash a tidal wave of analysis, but I’d be surprised if anyone declared the night decisive.

10:00 — The pundits agree: Clinton failed to stop Obama’s momentum. Which doesn’t mean she’s finished; there’s still a week before the Texas and Ohio primaries that she needs to win to remain competitive. But it’s getting harder and harder to imagine her moment arriving.

More in Bright Lights | Blogs Home | Current Issue | SUBSCRIBE »

Posted on Thursday, February 21st, 2008 at 8:09 pm. Follow comments through the RSS 2.0 feed. Comment or trackback.