PARIS—Is that old saying that “the more things change, the more they stay the same” still current? Because if you ask me, it’s as true in sports today as it’s been in years.
In my younger days—back when men were men and the Stegosaurus was the true king of the jungle—I used to lose my mind over the reprehensibly predictable predictions that sportswriters would unleash on the eve of a new season. “Really, you’re going out on a limb and predicting the Braves to win the NL East again? Booooooring!�
But then I got to thinking: we know that nobody knows anything, that’s why they play the games, etc. etc. So maybe the writer who goes out on a limb before the season and chooses the sexy underdog (“I think the Arizona Cardinals could really surprise football fans this year�) is actually the lame one, going for the glory of being the only one to anticipate the unlikely.
Really, what’s so wrong about some fogey sportswriter proclaiming before the 2005 season, “You know, Barry Bonds won the NL MVP last year, and the year before, and the two years before that one too, so – here’s a crazy thought – maybe he’ll win it again this year?� Of course, Bonds only played 14 games that season, so the prediction itself would have been very wrong. But not the reasoning.
I’ll admit, two things this week really pushed me to this position: first, as predicted in last week’s dispatch, Gonzaga failed to emerge from the first round of March Madness, spoiling my bracket for the umpteenth year in a row (I had them in the last eight, because I’m a glutton for punishment).
Secondly, I popped into my favourite Paris sports bar, The Moose, yesterday afternoon. As it happens, the Vancouver Canucks, the only sports team on the planet that I’m 100 percent loyal to, were playing an important late-season game against the Colorado Avalanche. Now, every time I go to a bar to watch the Canucks, they invariably lose horribly. Still, when I arrived they held a 2-1 lead at the first intermission, so things were going OK. And 11:31 into that second period, the Avalanche led 5-2 and all-world goalie Roberto Luongo had been pulled. Here’s the scary part: the broadcast was a replay from the previous night. I had jinxed the Canucks a full 15 hours after they had played the game! My jinxingness knows not the bounds of the space-time continuum.
So, the spirit of “the more things change, the more they stay the same,� and hopping on King Kaufman of Salon’s tradition-debunking west-to-east priority queue, here are my quick-hit season predictions for the 2008 MLB season, in order of predicted finish. As Thom Yorke says, “no surprises, please�:
NL West
San Diego Padres: Good pitching, lousy hitting. Always in the playoff picture, but they never quite have enough to win it all. Ladies and germs, your 2008 San Diego Padres.
Colorado Rockies: The Rockies have won 13 of their past 14 regular season games, dating back to last season. They clearly have a lot of momentum heading into the season, right? Yep, that’s exactly how we’re gonna play this, folks.
LA Dodgers: I saw a French hipster on the Paris metro’s 2 line last night. He was wearing a Dodgers hat. He was also drinking red wine straight from the bottle, very conspicuously. But every time we stopped, he’d tuck the bottle in his jacket, so that nobody on the platform could see him. That’s this decade’s Dodgers for you: ballsy, but never quite ballsy enough.
Arizona Diamondbacks: A sexy up-and-coming preseason pick that made the playoffs last year but has been largely terrible since they won the World Series in 2001. Sorry, we’re going with the last 6 lousy years over the championship season as representative of “recent history.�
San Francisco Giants: As usual, it’s Barry Bonds and a bunch of retreads taking the field for the Giants. What, Barry’s gone? OK, revise that first sentence.
NL Central
St Louis Cardinals: Nobody seems to think much of this year’s Cards team, one of the most consistently good teams of the past decade. So look at this: I get to go out on a limb and stick with my “trust the recent past� gimmick. That worked out nicely, didn’t it?
Chicago Cubs: I’m a Cubs fans. I know how this works. So close, yet so far. Or maybe just so far.
Milwaukee Brewers: Sexy pick last year, started out hot and faded down the stretch. Did they learn something along the way? I don’t know. I do know that their jerseys still say Milwaukee Brewers on them, though.
Houston Astros: Their offence always performs worse than advertised, which is strange because they play in a miniature ballpark. I think it’s made out of Lego. Maybe we can call the worse-than-projected phenomenon the “Enron Field curse?�
Cincinnati Reds: Like the Brewers and the D-Backs, folks are bullish on the formerly terrible Reds. Thus, it’s going to be a long year in the ‘Nnati (that’s what the locals call it, right?)
Pittsburgh Pirates: Haven’t had a winning season since the Eisenhower administration (fact checkers, please confirm).
NL East
Atlanta Braves: Until last year, the classic “the more things change…� pick. And I’m right back on the bandwagon!
Philadelphia Phillies: They still play in Philadelphia, right? Does Vegas have an over/under on “how many games short of their fans’ expectations will the Phillies fall?� I’ll take the under.
New York Mets: The anti-Rockies, having lost 12 of their past 17 games dating back to, er, last season. They are ice cold, folks, and a 16-game season just isn’t enough time to shake something like that. What, baseball plays 162 games? You’re joking! They have the endurance of fighter pilots!
Florida Marlins: Their “guaranteed to win the World Series every 6 years� bond matures next year. See you in 2009, Marlins fans.
Washington Nationals: I remember when this team used to be the Washington Expos. Weren’t they bad back then, too?
AL West
Anaheim Angels: The AL version of the Padres, only they have Vladimir Guerrero.
Oakland Athletics: Always so close, yet always so far.
Seattle Mariners: I think the Mariners could surprise people this year and win the division. But based on recent history, I have to slot them here.
Texas Rangers: Hey, look on the bright side, Rangers fans. You know you aren’t finishing any worse than fourth in your division. What Pirates fans wouldn’t give to be able to say that!
AL Central
Minnesota Twins: Like the Cardinals, people are a little down on the Twins after they gave away the best pitcher in baseball over the offseason. Still, these predictions aren’t based on offseason player movement. The Twins of this decade know how to win.
Cleveland Indians: Arguably the most talented team in the league, a trendy World Series pick for the last two years that even more people think has the horses to win it all this year. Hey, they’ve fallen short of expectations the past two years. Maybe that’s, like, their thing?
Detroit Tigers: Reached the World Series two seasons ago and made some big splashes in the offseason. In the Sportstrotter’s calculus, those two things cancel each other out. Let’s sign them up for 81-81.
Chicago White Sox: Man, the mediocre teams that won championships in the past decade are really fracking up my gimmick! Now watch the Sox go ahead and win the division, just to spite me. I can’t win.
Kansas City Royals: My rocks, my security blankets, my shoulder-to-lean-on-in-times-of-trouble. Thank you for being a friend, fifth-place Kansas City Royals.
AL East
Boston Red Sox: Once in a great while, a team comes along and shatters the “more things change� edict. And then, to prove that it wasn’t a fluke, they do it again three years later. OK. I get it. Sold.
New York Yankees: You really didn’t think I was going to rank them lower than second in this division, did you?
Toronto Blue Jays: I sometimes wonder why the rest of the AL East even bothers to field a team. The Jays have been a trendy pick to upset the natural pecking order for a couple years now. I guess there’s a reason why they call it the “natural pecking order.�
Tampa Bay Devil Rays: See above.
Baltimore Orioles: See above.
Playoff Predictions
NL Wildcard: Philadelphia Phillies
AL Wildcard: Cleveland Indians
World Series: San Diego over Anaheim (hey, sometimes a guy’s gotta go out on a limb, right?)
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